states or DC are eligible for group life insurance coverage, subject to availability. Only individuals ages 18-54 and who are residents of one of the 50 U.S. ‡ Group life insurance coverage provided through Avibra, Inc. § Depending on the subscription plan, there may be additional steps a user must take to cancel their account which may impact the amount of time it takes to fully close an account.Please see Deposit Account Agreement for details. Please see Advisory Agreement for details. You’ll also bear standard fees and expenses reflected in the pricing of the ETFs, plus fees for various ancillary services charged by Stash and the Custodian. Each type of account is subject to different regulations and limitations. †Stash offers access to investment and banking accounts under each subscription plan.2030 TAM estimate equals a $312 billion global food delivery market, which assumes the global food delivery market continues growing at 10.9% annually from 2028-2030 (consistent with Research and Market’s estimated CAGR through 2028). Without reliable fundamental research, investors have no way of gauging whether a stock is expensive or cheap.ĭisclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme. With a better grasp on fundamentals, investors have a better sense of when to buy and sell – and – know how much risk they take when they own a stock at certain levels. For reference, DoorDash’s invested capital increased $813 million (92% of 2019 revenue) year-over-year in 2019 and $3.9 billion (137% of 2020 revenue) YoY in 2020.įundamental Research Provides Clarity in Frothy MarketsĢ022 has quickly shown investors that fundamentals matter and stocks don’t only go up. This assumption is highly unlikely but creates best-case scenarios that demonstrate how high expectations embedded in the current valuation are. Implied GOV: DCF ScenariosĭASH DCF Implied Gross Order Volume New Constructs, LLCĮach of the above scenarios assume DoorDash grows revenue, NOPAT, and FCF without increasing working capital or fixed assets. DoorDash’s current stock price implies its GOV ten years from now will be nearly four times greater than Uber’s TTM bookings.įigure 2: Historical GOV vs. For reference, I also include the bookings of Uber, which represent the total dollars spent on Uber’s platform, similar to DoorDash’s GOV metric. This scenario may prove too optimistic as it assumes a significant improvement in NOPAT margin in an increasingly commoditized industry.įigure 2 compares DoorDash’s implied future gross order volume in these scenarios to its historical GOV. At its 3Q21 take rate, this scenario equates to over $125 billion in gross order volume in 2030, which would equal 40% of the projected 2030 TAM. Even in this scenario, DoorDash would earn $15.3 billion in revenue in 2030. The stock is, optimistically, worth just $34/share today – a 67% downside. grows revenue by 11% (expected industry CAGR through 2028) each year thereafter through 2030, then.grows revenue by consensus estimates in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and.improves its NOPAT margin to 6% (equal to FedEx’s TTM NOPAT margin),. In other words, to justify DoorDash’s current price of ~$103/share, the firm must capture 94% of the projected 2030 global food delivery TAM, compared to ~32% over the trailing twelve months.Ħ7% Downside Even if DoorDash Matches Industry GrowthĭoorDash’s economic book value, or no growth value, is negative $33/share, which illustrates the overly optimistic expectations in its stock price. Take rate measures the percentage of GOV DoorDash captures as revenue. At its 3Q21 take rate of 12.2%, this scenario equates to ~$294 billion in marketplace gross order volume (GOV) for DoorDash in 2030. In this scenario, DoorDash would earn nearly $36 billion in revenue in 2030.
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